000
ABNT20 KNHC 292343
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 29 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AFRICA.  THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ON
FRIDAY...AND NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY.  
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE WEEKEND.  AFTER THAT
TIME...THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE WHILE
THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.   THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE 
WESTWARD TOWARD A REGION WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE