000
ABNT20 KNHC 291730
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 29 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS 
ABOUT TO MOVE OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. THIS SYSTEM IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
A LITTLE LESS THAN 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS
INCREASED SOME...THE WAVE IS HEADING WESTWARD TOWARD A REGION WHERE
THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
DUE TO A REMOTE POWER AND INTERNET SERVICE OUTAGE...UPDATES OF THE
NHC WEB PAGE MAY BE DELAYED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA