000
ABNT20 KNHC 290519
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 29 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER WESTERN AFRICA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH...AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM AFTER THE WAVE
MOVES OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1300
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS LIMITED. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE
WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND APPROACHES THE LESSER
ANTILLES. AFTER THAT TIME...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD INHIBIT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN