000
ABNT20 KNHC 251731
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAVE BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
NEAR 10 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE
SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO TONIGHT OR
MONDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 
INTERESTS IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM WESTERN AFRICA TONIGHT
AND MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.  SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH