000
ABNT20 KNHC 242326
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 24 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY. WHETHER TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OCCURS OR NOT...THIS
DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ
MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. 

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST...ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD
MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS ACTIVITY IS POORLY ORGANIZED
AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA