000
ABNT20 KNHC 241738
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 24 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
SOUTH OF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY.  HOWEVER...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THE AREA.  ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO...BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE WHEN THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM GETS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN