000
ABNT20 KNHC 240530
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 24 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE ARE
NO INDICATIONS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE THE TROUGH REACHES THE WESTERN
GULF COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE WHILE
THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY DUE TO PROXIMITY
TO LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN