000
ABNT20 KNHC 232336
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 23 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN DIMINISHING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THERE ARE NO
INDICATIONS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION.  THE TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE
TEXAS AND MEXICO COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT
BEFORE THEN IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE WHILE THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY DUE TO ITS
PROXIMITY TO LAND.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG