000
ABNT20 KNHC 180548
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 18 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN...LOCATED WEST-NORTHWEST OF 
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS EMERGING OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO IS DRIFTING WESTWARD. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART