000
ABNT20 KNHC 162329
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ERIN...LOCATED WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ABOUT 110 MILES NORTHWEST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.  THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE LOW GENERALLY MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE