000
ABNT20 KNHC 161145 CCA
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERIN...LOCATED WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED 
OFFSHORE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS 
CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED AND LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST AND 
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD 
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IF THE LOW MOVES TOWARD 
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD 
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  IF THE 
LOW TAKES A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK...HOWEVER...IT WOULD MOVE INTO 
A LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A 
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE AIR 
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 
TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI