000
ABNT20 KNHC 160548
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERIN...LOCATED WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. LITTLE OR NO DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS
EXPECTED WHILE IT REMAINS OVER LAND.  HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
LATER TODAY.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WOULD ONLY FAVOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY...
IF NECESSARY.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN