000
ABNT20 KNHC 151731
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERIN...LOCATED WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE BUT
DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...HAS MOVED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
ANTICIPATED WHILE IT MOVES OVER LAND...BUT THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
ON FRIDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WOULD ONLY FAVOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ERIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN