000
ABNT20 KNHC 150532
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 15 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES ON NEWLY
FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE...LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DECREASED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10
MPH AND SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER WESTERN CUBA...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. 

&&
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON THE DEPRESSION ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA