000
ABNT20 KNHC 140501
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 14 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD TO JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BE MORE MARGINAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE LOW WILL BE MOVING TOWARD
COOLER WATER AND DRIER AIR...WHICH COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG