000
ABNT20 KNHC 132351
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD TO JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATER AND
DRIER AIR BY THE WEEKEND.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG