000
ABNT20 KNHC 131738
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR JAMAICA.  UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BUT COULD BECOME LESS FAVORABLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL THE WAVE ENTERS A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT BY THIS WEEKEND.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN