000
ABNT20 KNHC 130501
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN 
SEA NORTHEASTWARD TO HISPANIOLA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG