000
ABNT20 KNHC 122318
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN 
SEA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO NEAR
HISPANIOLA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE LARGE DISTURBANCE
MOVES TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART