000
ABNT20 KNHC 121734
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR HISPANIOLA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANGE...NEAR 10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA