000
ABNT20 KNHC 030501
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED SURFACE WIND DATA INDICATE THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 70 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
AND IS PRODUCING WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA FURTHER
INDICATE THAT ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THIS
ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IF
THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES COULD BE
RE-INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING LOCATED ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE LOW...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD NOT BE
REQUIRED FOR THE BAHAMAS OR ANY PART THE UNITED STATES COASTLINE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART