000
ABNT20 KNHC 022341
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF MELBOURNE
FLORIDA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF DORIAN...IS MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD.  SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. 
HOWEVER...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN