000
ABNT20 KNHC 020545
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF
DORIAN...ARE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGES...AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND.  THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH...BRINGING CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND GUSTY
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA TODAY AND SATURDAY.  AFTER THAT...
THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART