000
ABNT20 KNHC 012352
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...LOCATED BETWEEN SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE BAHAMAS.  SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING...AND SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
BECOME UNFAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...BRINGING CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS...AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH
OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE