000
ABNT20 KNHC 290530
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 29 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS 
A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. RECENT
SATELLITE-DERIVED SURFACE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THIS DISTURBANCE
DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND SURFACE
PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION TO OCCUR
TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
TODAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/PASCH