000
ABNT20 KNHC 281751
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS
WINDS TO GALE FORCE...A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER HAVE REDEVELOPED. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
REGENERATION...BUT ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD LEAD
TO THE REFORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH...PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY
AND MONDAY...AND MOVING OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG