000
ABNT20 KNHC 072345
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 25 MPH. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS AFTERNOON.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM
LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
IF DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.  REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN