000
ABNT20 KNHC 071154
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 25 MPH.  ALTHOUGH
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION
AT THIS TIME.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE.  DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED...AND IT HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED...
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD STILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART