000
ABNT20 KNHC 062342
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT
950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION
AT THIS TIME.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
20 TO 25 MPH.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO TOWARD THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF COASTS THROUGH
MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN