000
ABNT20 KNHC 061732
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT
850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION
AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TOWARD THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COAST. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA THROUGH MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART