000
ABNT20 KNHC 142335
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS...
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND MASSES. 
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER
OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION MOVES INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY
LATE SUNDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...CUBA...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG