000
ABNT20 KNHC 291839
TWOAT 
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
240 PM EDT FRI OCT 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM SHARY...LOCATED ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.  

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. DATA
FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH
WINDS TO TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE IS FORMING. IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND
CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM
TOMAS AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD ALSO
THEN BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. 

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW
SHOWERS.  DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON SHARY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON SHARY ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT5. 

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI