000
ABNT20 KNHC 282342
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION...AND THE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGH FRIDAY...HOWEVER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AFTER THAT.  THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT
725 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR 
TO BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE 
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...VENEZUELA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GUYANA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG