000
ABNT20 KNHC 281733
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS DISORGANIZED.  DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS BECOMING
LESS LIKELY DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA CONTINUE TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE
A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT OR ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AFTER THAT.  THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.
 
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT
850 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI