000
ABNT20 KNHC 280239
TWOAT 
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1040 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC

UPDATED...A NEARLY-STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT
1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. 
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND RECENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
THAT THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE FORCE.  ANY ADDITIONAL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL STORM.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING 
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
 
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC 
ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN