000
ABNT20 KNHC 271742
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM
HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COULD BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN