000
ABNT20 KNHC 212346
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM RICHARD LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND
CAYMAN AND ABOUT 190 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. 
WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST AFTER THAT TIME. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.  STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM RICHARD ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN