000
ABNT20 KNHC 200536
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 165 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW HAVE INCREASED TO THE NORTHEAST OF ITS CENTER DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS.  ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW LATER THIS MORNING.  INTERESTS
IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.      

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN