000
ABNT20 KNHC 180531
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED...BUT HAVE INCREASED
NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE EAST COAST OF
NICARAGUA.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT INTERACTS WITH LAND
IN A DAY OR TWO.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THIS PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
NOT NORMALLY EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH