000
ABNT20 KNHC 172332
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 17 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED NEAR A BROAD AND
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH LAND IN A DAY OR TWO.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10
MPH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THIS PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
NOT NORMALLY EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH