000
ABNT20 KNHC 171157
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 17 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF 
LOW PRESSURE.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A 
LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE 
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC 
OCEAN ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS 
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  STRONG UPPER-LEVEL 
WINDS ARE INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT THEY COULD 
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME OF YEAR 
IS NOT LIKELY...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS 
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG