000
ABNT20 KNHC 052355
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 225 MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN ELONGATED BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. 
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL...AND THE LOW
APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...IT DOES
NOT CURRENTLY HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 MPH.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES.  THIS DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG