000
ABNT20 KNHC 051747
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 140 MILES NORTH OF
SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE BAND OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PUERTO RICO...
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND EXTENDING
NORTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT
900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS DISTURBANCE
IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART