000
ABNT20 KNHC 051148
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT
950 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART