000
ABNT20 KNHC 050536
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
INCREASED A LITTLE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 1000
MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI