000
ABNT20 KNHC 042348
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
NEAR THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  HOWEVER...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG