000
ABNT20 KNHC 041736
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO
...AND HISPANIOLA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IT
MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS