000
ABNT20 KNHC 040536
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE BY WEDNESDAY.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.  LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR SO AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI