000
ABNT20 KNHC 032337
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS.  SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BY WEDNESDAY.  
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH