000
ABNT20 KNHC 021136
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 2 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO.   

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN